Could Chianti Classico Be The One To Watch For The Gold Cup in 2025?

Ordinarily, when it comes to the Gold Cup, the three horses at the top of the betting markets are usually the ones with the best chance of winning.

Of course, there have been upsets over the years, but the longest-odds winner in recent times has been Lord Windermere, who was at 20/1 in 2014.

Since then, Al Boum Photo, at 12/1 in 2019, has been the only double-figure horse to claim victory, and even then, the following year, he went off as the 3/1 favourite.

Favourites have had a 50% success rate in the last ten years, so you may be wondering why on earth I would be extolling the virtues of a horse that is currently 50/1 in the betting for the Gold Cup 2025.

With Galopin Des Champs going for three in a row in an attempt to equal the great Best Mate, and with Willie Mullins also likely to saddle the ante-post favourite, Fact To File, Chianti Classico doesn’t look like he has a chance. Or does he?

A Rising Star

Under the guidance of trainer Kim Bailey, who is no stranger to the winner’s enclosure, Chianti Classico’s journey to the top of jumps racing has been nothing short of impressive.

The seven-year-old bay gelding first caught the eye of racing enthusiasts in October 2022, when he secured his first win over hurdles at Chepstow. This victory was quickly followed by another at Market Rasen in December of the same year, signalling the emergence of a promising talent.

However, it was in 2024 that Chianti Classico truly announced himself as a force to be reckoned with. On March 12, 2024, he stormed to victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

This win was particularly noteworthy, as Chianti Classico carried a weight of 11-4 and overcame a field of 21 runners, in very heavy going, to claim the prize.

Jockey David Bass, who guided Chianti Classico to his Cheltenham triumph, was effusive in his praise:

“What a lovely horse. He just travelled and jumped everywhere. It’s brilliant for the owners, brilliant for the yard – we’ve been a bit quiet, but we can get them to the big day in good form”.

Recent Triumphs

Chianti Classico’s success didn’t stop at Cheltenham. On November 2, 2024, he added another prestigious victory to his resume by winning the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup at Ascot.

This time, he carried top weight of 12-0, making all under new stable jockey Tom Bellamy to win by three lengths.

Trainer Kim Bailey was understandably thrilled with the performance, hailing Chianti Classico as an “absolute superstar” and indicating that the Grand National might be a future target.

However, with the horse’s continued improvement and ability to handle top weight in valuable handicaps, could the Cheltenham Gold Cup be a more fitting aim?

Bookies have him on 50/1, largely because he does have other options at the Festival in 2025. But if racing fans can see past Willie Mullins’s domination in the race over the last few years, Chianti Classico could be worth a punt.

More so if any of the cheltenham betting offers provide a free bet, which is always better to use on an outsider to maximise potential returns. And 50/1 could certainly be considered an outsider!

Comparing the Contenders

The Ultima and the Ascot Gold Cup wins are undoubtedly impressive, but in order to really assess Chianti Classico’s Gold Cup prospects, it’s worth comparing his form and stats against some of the leading contenders for the race.

Galopin Des Champs is the current Gold Cup holder, having secured back-to-back victories in 2023 and 2024. The Irish-trained gelding has been a dominant force in recent years, with an impressive record at the highest level.

However, his recent third-place finish in the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown suggests he may not be invincible.

Fact To File, another Mullins-trained horse, emerged victorious in that John Durkan Chase, beating Galopin Des Champs – and then jumped ahead of him in the ante-post betting markets for the Gold Cup.

This performance has marked him out as a serious Gold Cup contender, although it’s worth noting that he’s less experienced over fences than some of his rivals.

Fastorslow, trained by Martin Brassil, has also shown strong form, finishing second to Galopin Des Champs in the 2023 Gold Cup. However, he was well beaten in the John Durkan Chase, finishing behind both Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs.

In comparison, Chianti Classico’s form is on an upward trajectory. His ability to win valuable handicaps under top weight suggests he has the class to compete at the highest level.

Moreover, his jumping ability could be a significant asset in a race like the Gold Cup where fluent fencing is crucial.

From Ultima to Gold Cup: A Well-Trodden Path

The Ultima Handicap Chase has often served as a stepping stone for horses with Gold Cup aspirations. Several previous Ultima winners have gone on to compete in the Blue Riband event the following year, with varying degrees of success.

Perhaps the most relevant recent example is Corach Rambler. This Lucinda Russell-trained gelding won back-to-back Ultimas in 2022 and 2023.

He then won the Grand National in 2023 and used the Gold Cup in 2024 as a prep race ahead of his return to Aintree.

Placing a worthy third place at Cheltenham, he couldn’t repeat his success at Aintree, unseating his jockey Derek Fox.

Even if Chianti Classico, who is three years younger, could finish in third place, at odds of 50/1 you would still get a better return on your bet than if you backed any of the top three – and their odds are only going to shorten as the race draws closer!

Chianti Classico’s Potential Path

Given Chianti Classico’s progression and his connections’ ambitions, it seems likely that the Gold Cup could be a serious target for 2025.

However, Kim Bailey may choose to take a more conservative route, possibly targeting the Ryanair Chase over a shorter distance as an intermediate step.

The horse’s ability to handle the unique demands of Cheltenham, as demonstrated in his Ultima victory, bodes well for his chances in any Festival race.

His improving form over staying trips also suggests that the Gold Cup distance of 3 miles 2½ furlongs should be within his compass.

Time Will Tell

While it’s always challenging to predict a horse’s future performances, Chianti Classico has shown all the hallmarks of a potential Gold Cup contender.

His progression through the ranks, his ability to win valuable handicaps under top weight, and his proven aptitude for Cheltenham all point to a horse with serious potential.

As we look ahead to the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, Chianti Classico is certainly a name to keep in mind. Whether he lines up for the Gold Cup or takes an alternative route, this Kim Bailey-trained gelding has already proven himself a horse of considerable talent.

With a potential run in the Becher Chase at Aintree on December 7th, a win there could throw Cheltenham plans in the air if connections opt for the National instead.

Either way, he’s a racehorse worth considering for that each-way bet, whichever race Bailey decides to run him in.