Arkle Chase Tips 2024 – Will The Favourite Win This Time?

recap

We all want Arkle Chase tips, another two-mile race that is usually run at a furious gallop. It sees the top novice chasers collide in what is always a spectacle to watch.

It has a proud history of producing some fantastic winners who go onto repeat victories time and time again in bigger races afterwards including the likes of Edwardstone, Shishkin, Sprinter Sacre and Altior to name just a few.

There are thirteen fences to take in over the old course and the race usually takes a little under four minutes to complete.

In recent years, the UK and Irish based trained have tussled for the prize counterparts with the Irish regaining the winning habit following the success of El Fabiolo last season.

The race can provide the odd shock as the likes of Put The Kettle On (16/1) and Western Warhorse (33/1) have demonstrated in recent years.

Winning last time out seems to be a necessity for winning this as eighteen of the last twenty-two winners have done so and favourites have a good record in this having won eight of the last eleven renewals.

The last ten winners of this race all won on their previous start so that is a statistic to stay on the right side of.

The Irish Arkle has provided major clues as to what wins this in the past with no fewer than four winners coming from that race to take the spoils here including Un De Sceaux, Douvan, Footpad and the aforementioned El Fabiolo.

Previous Winners of the Arkle Chase

Runners To Watch

Below are selected runners who hold entries for Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 2024.

Karl Hedley provides some recent form notes to help point you in the right direction of identifying the winner.

IL ETAIT TEMPS – WILLIE MULLINS

Ran a fair race in the Supreme last year, but has certainly improved for the switch to fences this time around.

He was a commanding winner of the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown back in February where he saw off the persistent challenge of Found A Fifty and Facile Vega.

Winners of the Irish Arkle tend to do well in this and having done the same double with El Fabiolo last year, Willie Mullins will fancy his chances of doing it again.

He has raced at Cheltenham twice before and is yet to win but he brings the best form to the table and commands respect.

FOUND A FIFTY – GORDON ELLIOTT

Found A Fifty has as yet to finish out of the first two placings in four starts this season.

He has picked up two wins along the way, including the Grade 1 Racing Post Chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.

He went down on his sword against Il Etait Temps last time and over that same course and distance and renews rivalry with him here.

He stays much further than this and has to rate as a massive danger given his improvement throughout the year.

GAELIC WARRIOR – WILLIE MULLINS

Needs to put a bitterly disappointing performance at Leopardstown behind him. He ended up in a match race and looked far from comfortable going left handed.

That has to be a massive worry coming into this race especially as he unseated Paul Townend when well beaten by Fact To File jumping the last fence.

He was beaten six-and-a-half lengths in the Ballymore last season with the stiff uphill run in likely to blame.

As good as he is, he would be better waiting for Punchestown, where he won a Grade 1 novice hurdle last season.

HUNTERS YARN – WILLIE MULLINS

Was last seen romping home at Fairyhouse by ten lengths in a beginners chase. It was a major improvement up on his first effort, which ended up a disaster as he fell at the last flight when five lengths clear.

He will need to step up again in order to get involved here and he didn’t seem to handle the hurly burley of the festival when finishing in the mid pack of the County Hurdle field last year.

Seems to lack the class that it usually takes to win this and he would be something of a surprise winner.

JPR ONE – JOE TIZZARD

Won the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield last time out when getting the better of Matata.

He seems to be the only genuine home contender this season as he bids to follow in the footsteps of compatriots Edwardstone and Shishkin in recent years.

Has been to Cheltenham three times before and has yet to win, which would be a negative.

He also fell when trying these particular fences for the first time back in November. He loves to get his toe into soft ground, so if the rains were to come, he would be of more interest.

Further improvement is needed.

QUILIXIOS – HENRY DE BROMHEAD

Has won two out of three chases so far this year, but like a few of these is completely unproven in top class company over fences.

He was a good sort over hurdles and won the Triumph Hurdle here back in 2021. He is open to further improvement and past festival winning experience cannot be ignored.

Henry De Bromhead and his horses tend to peak just in time for this meeting so impossible to rule him out especially given the likelihood that Rachael Blackmore rides.

He will be running in the familiar colours of Cheveley Park Stud and has to be respected.

MY MATE MOZZIE – GAVIN CROMWELL

A versatile and valuable performer, this horse secured a straightforward victory over the same course and distance in October under favourable ground conditions.

He then followed up with a commendable second-place finish behind Found A Fifty in a Grade 1 novice race at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, despite being considered the outsider among four contenders.

His upcoming challenge presents his toughest test yet, necessitating a career-best performance while adapting to a new combination of headgear.

Nevertheless, he continues to show promising progress, and improved conditions with drying ground would likely work in his favor.

AUTHORISED SPEED – GARY MOORE

He finished fifth in the Champion Bumper in 2022 and displaying promising form in novice hurdles last season, this horse faced disappointment due to his jumping performances in his initial outings over fences.

He suffered a fall two fences from the finish at Ascot when in a commanding position and subsequently encountered numerous errors at Plumpton.

Given these challenges, it would be unexpected for him to emerge as the winner.

MASTER CHEWY – NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES

Mediocre performer at best in hurdles races, who was notably outpaced in the Baring Bingham last season. He is significantly excelling as a chaser, demonstrating solid jumping skills in his initial four attempts over fences.

Among these, he clinched a smooth victory in a Grade 2 novice race at Kempton in December.

Despite a subpar display behind JPR One at Lingfield in his last outing, which was marred by interference from his stablemate Matata, it’s advisable to disregard this performance.

With untapped potential still at his disposal, he remains capable of surpassing expectations significantly.

MATATA – NIGEL TWISTON DAVIES

A habitual front-runner, who triumphed on his chasing debut at Ffos Las in October on good to soft ground.

He was narrowly overtaken near the finish line in his subsequent race on heavier going on New Year’s Day.

Later in January, he put in another commendable performance, narrowly missing out to JPR One in a Grade 2 race at Lingfield on soft ground.

Despite occasionally veering to the left during jumps, he remains an unpredictable ride. However, given his potential and lack of complete exposure, he should not be discounted.

Ticks The Right Boxes?

2024 Arkle Chase Tips & Key Trends

This is a wide open renewal of the Arkle this season and may of the runners have their quirks.

The most solid form brought to the table is by Il Etait Temps. He won the Irish version of this at the Dublin Racing Festival and usually horses that go well there do the same here.

He does have a hood on which is a massive negative in the stats for this race, but he is a quality chaser and is a better horse on better ground.

The one who could run well at a good price is Matata. He usually sets off like a scalded cat and he was a fair second here to Libberty Hunter on New Year’s Day.

He is locally trained so expect a massive cheer if he runs a huge race.

Key Trends

  • 18 of the past 23 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over fences.
  • 9 of the past 12 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (5) or Nicky Henderson (4).
  • 6 of the past 11 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over both hurdles and fences.
  • 25 or the past 32 winners were aged 6 or 7.
  • Only 1 winner of the last 23 have worn headgear including cheek-pieces, visor, tongue-tie or a hood.

Odds With Betfred – correct at time of publication

  • Gaelic Warrior 3/1
  • Il Etait Temps 6/1
  • Hunters Yarn 6/1
  • Quilixios 13/2
  • Found A Fifty 7/1
  • JPR One 8/1
  • My Mate Mozzie 10/1
  • Master Chewy 16/1
  • Matata 18/1
  • Authorised Speed 80/1



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