For nearly 100 years, the Champion Hurdle has been a staple of the Cheltenham Festival. First run in 1927, there are eight hurdles to be jumped over the 2 miles and ½ furlong course.
Blaris, the very first winner, took home the princely sum of £365 for his efforts, which today would be worth around £28,736. Interestingly, he was also the race favourite. There were only four runners, so it wasn’t exactly a showdown for the ages, at least not compared to the race that we know and love today.
As we look ahead to 2025, the question is whether betting on the favourite, irrespective of which runner that may be, is a decent strategy. Looking back at the most recent winners, it just might be.
So, let’s dig a little deeper and find out if the race has become so predictable that it’s not worth looking beyond the top two when deciding where to put your money.
The Statistics
No matter where you watch the race in the world, from one of the many NZ online casinos to the comfort of home, you must determine whether backing the favourite is a sound strategy.
To do that, let’s examine how favourites have fared in the Champion Hurdle over the years.
Over the past decade, the race’s remarkable trend has seen the favourite emerge victorious in seven of the last nine years. The last three have been odds ON, with State Man going off at 2/5F for trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend in 2024.
Prior to that, Constitution Hill did the business for trainer Nicky Henderson in 2023 with odds of 4/11F, and in 2022, Rachel Blackmore and Honeysuckle, on 8/11F, headed to the winners’ enclosure after their impressive run.
This statistic alone might tempt many of you to back the favourite in 2025, but the race is still months away, and anything can happen between now and then.
Current Race Favourite
So which potential runners look like going off as the race favourite in 2025?
It’s a battle at the top, with three contenders vying for pole position. Last year’s winner, State Man, is looking for a repeat performance. However, he is only third in the betting.
Constitution Hill was ahead of him in second place, and he had been the leading contender in 2024 before Nicky Henderson withdrew him due to health issues.
That leaves Lossiemouth, the grey mare, as the current race favourite, with odds as low as 7/4. Trained by Willie Mullins and sporting the famous pink and green polka dot silks of Mrs Susannah Ricci, the five-year-old has a near-perfect record winning nine of her ten hurdle starts.
Should she run in, and win, the Champion Hurdle in 2025, it will be her third festival win after the JCB Triumph Hurdle in 2023 and the Mares Hurdle in 2024.
But before you run out and back her to the hilt, she also has two other festival options, the first being the Mares Hurdle again and the second with the Stayer’s Hurdle. The path connections plan to take with her is currently unknown and likely to stay that way until the week of the festival.
Before March 2025
The good news is that we didn’t have to wait that long for a clash of the titans as Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth went head-to-head in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Willie Mullins sent State Man to Leopardstown and given that he didn’t want his stable stars pitted against each other so early in the season, he decided to send Lossiemouth across the pond to face down Henderson’s Constitution Hill, a race he won last year.
Henderson was relishing the prospect and, when writing in his blog at the time, said:
“Lossiemouth is a mighty threat to all of them. She looked exceptional at the weekend, but as far as I’m concerned, it’s all Seven Barrows guns blazing to Kempton, and if anybody else wants to join in the Christmas party, they are more than welcome.”
And, he proved right in his prediction as Constitution Hill duly returned the win, pipping Lossiemouth to the post by just 2½ lengths, in what was a relatively quiet race that saw just four runners take to the starting tape.
That hasn’t changed the antepost odds for the Champion Hurdle favourite, but there’s still plenty of time for the betting markets to settle on a definitive frontrunner.
So, Should You Back The Favourite?
Given the historical data and recent trends, backing the favourite in the Champion Hurdle appears reasonable. The high success rate of favourites in the past decade suggests that the market often correctly identifies the strongest contender.
However, it’s essential to consider a few factors before blindly betting on a horse you know little about.
The potential return might not justify the risk if the favourite is at very short odds. Last year’s winner, State Man, would only have returned £2 for every £5 you put on him.
Instead, if you had an each-way bet on Luccia, who finished in third place, you would have won much more as she was 33/1, netting you just over £6 for every £1 you bet.
Only two five-year-olds have won since 1985, so Lossiemouth could be up against it. She will technically be six years old when the race rolls around.
Mares have had a resurgence in the race in recent years, notching up four victories in the last nine runnings, with Annie Power in 2016, Epatante in 2020, and Honeysuckle in 2021 and 2022.
However it pans out, the Champion Hurdle 2025 promises to be another thrilling race. While backing the favourite has proven to be a successful strategy in recent years, it’s crucial to consider all factors before placing your bets.
The race’s history shows that while favourites often prevail, upsets are always possible in horse racing.
Keep a close eye on potential contenders’ form, trainer comments, and betting markets. Whether you choose to back the favourite or seek value elsewhere, just remember that in horse racing, there are no guarantees.
