Ryanair Chase 2026 Wide Open as Fact To File Leads the Antepost Betting Markets
The 2026 Ryanair Chase looks set to be one of the most intriguing contests of the Cheltenham Festival, with the antepost market currently centred on Fact To File and a host of quality chasers in pursuit.
With entries yet to be officially declared and more than two dozen potential runners waiting in the wings, this Grade 1 contest is truly wide open, promising drama and uncertainty that are hallmarks of the Festival’s Thursday card.
Ryanair Chase: Day 3’s Feature
Since its inception, the Ryanair Chase has rapidly cemented its place as the flagship event of Day 3 at Cheltenham, traditionally falling on St Patrick’s Thursday – a day packed with energy and a major draw for Irish racing fans.
The race is run over 2m 4½f on the New Course and is the championship target for chasers best suited to this specialist intermediate trip.
For horses that don’t quite possess the relentless pace needed for the Queen Mother Champion Chase nor the stamina for the Gold Cup, the Ryanair Chase is the perfect showcase, producing winners such as Un De Sceaux and Min, and regularly serving up thrilling finishes.
It’s the race that shapes the narrative for Day 3 and an anchor for punters and connections alike.
This year, with the Ryanair Chase scheduled for 12th March 2026, the anticipation is already palpable.
The official entry list will emerge in the new year, but more than 28 horses are currently viewed as possible contenders, making the antepost market especially fluid.
Fact To File – Mullins’ Antepost Favourite
Leading the current antepost horse racing odds is Fact To File, a powerhouse from the Willie Mullins stable and a horse that has shown consistent Grade 1 class across Irish contests.
Fact To File boasts a CV of major festival victories, including a dominant win at Punchestown over 2m in the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase last season, and a third-place finish in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown over 3m.
This bay gelding, by Poliglote out of Mitemps, continues to impress with his jumping and ability to quicken off a strong pace, traits perfectly suited to the Ryanair trip.
A key factor in his favour is his previous form at Cheltenham, which has proven vital in this contest. His official rating sits comfortably in the 170s, marking him as the clear benchmark in the field.
The partnership with the Mullins team means connections will plot a meticulous campaign towards the race, likely sidestepping clashes in January and February to keep the horse at peak for March.
However, while his position at the head of the betting may seem secure, given that he won this race last season, Cheltenham is notorious for upsets, and with the entries yet to be finalised, nothing is certain.
Gaelic Warrior – The Improving Challenger
Next up in the market is Gaelic Warrior, another high-profile Mullins representative who made headlines with impressive winning performances at Aintree and Sandown, which rounded off last season.
This bay gelding, by Maxios, has gradually stepped up in trip and class, showing he relishes the intermediate distance and can handle testing ground, which is a valuable asset for the Festival.
Gaelic Warrior’s 2024/25 campaign was marked by steady progression, though he did skip Cheltenham due to some training setbacks and niggles that prompted connections to withdraw him and get him back on track.
His jumping has sharpened, and he’s proven handy enough to adapt to tactical races, often finishing his contests powerfully from off the pace.
Although not as proven at Cheltenham as Fact To File, his consistent results in Ireland mark him out as a serious threat in March.
Il Etait Temps – Consistent and Capable
Il Etait Temps rounds out the leading Mullins-trained contenders, having carved out a reputation for reliability and class in top-level chases and hurdles.
The seven-year-old, by Jukebox Jury, brings a remarkable win and place ratio to the table (six wins and two places from eight starts), having scored in high-class races at Sandown, Punchestown, and Aintree.
His versatility over trips from two to two and a half miles, plus strong speed metrics, suggest he could be perfectly placed for the Ryanair’s intermediate distance.
Il Etait Temps has developed into an accomplished jumper, rarely putting a foot wrong and regularly delivering strong runs on both good and yielding ground.
Cheltenham form reads well with a third place in the 2025 Arkle Chase, and with most recent wins coming in Class 1 company, he remains on an upward curve.
Jonbon – The British Hope
Flying the British flag is Jonbon, trained by Nicky Henderson and backed by owner JP McManus. This nine-year-old has been a star in the two-mile chase division, notching 13 wins from 18 starts and over £1.2 million in prize money.
Known for his blazing speed and sharp jumping, Jonbon has collected major Grade 1 victories, though his adaptability at the Ryanair distance remains a story yet to unfold.
The past season saw him consistently placed at the top of the British chasing ranks, often competing against the likes of El Fabiolo and Energumene, though I’m sure Henderson was hoping for better than second place on his seasonal return in the Shloer Chase earlier in November.
That said, the trainer is adept at preparing his festival runners well, and with a proven track record at Cheltenham, Jonbon is sure to attract patriotic support and could yet play a starring role on the Thursday feature.
Should You Go Antepost at 2/1?
While the temptation to back the antepost favourite is always strong, Cheltenham’s Ryanair Chase offers countless lessons in caution.
The entries are not yet out, and markets could shift drastically based on official declarations, withdrawals, and late-season campaigns.
At odds of 2/1, Fact To File may appeal to those hunting value, but the reality is that risk and uncertainty are amplified at this stage, especially in a contest notorious for shocks, non-runners, and late schedule changes.
With 28 possibilities and likely more to come, locking in a price now means accepting significant risk on running plans, injuries, and market volatility. The wiser strategy may be to watch the markets and wait until declarations are confirmed, keeping options open for each-way value and finding runners suited to the unique demands of Cheltenham in March.
With so much still to be decided, a measured, patient approach may be the smartest play for antepost punters this year. And anyway, 2/1 antepost is no bargain, and Fact To File will have a lot of competition, so maybe look further down the betting market before committing to the favourite so far in advance.
