Who Wins the 2026 Ryanair Chase? Fact To File Leads the Odds But Jonbon and Banbridge Are Nipping At His Hooves
The 2026 Ryanair Chase looks a proper puzzle, with star power at the top of the market and enough depth to keep punters guessing right up to flagfall at 4pm on Thursday 12 March.
Fact To File heads the betting and the narrative, but this is no walkover with proven Grade 1 talent, second-season chasers on the upgrade, and a couple of bold front-runners all add layers to a fascinating renewal.
Run over 2m4½f on the New Course, the Ryanair Chase has become the championship test for horses who are neither out-and-out speedballs nor confirmed stayers.
It sits as the main chase on St Patrick’s Thursday, sharing top billing on the card and attracting trainers who believe this intermediate trip is their horse’s optimum.
A field of nine looks just about ideal with enough runners to ensure a solid gallop and tactical interest, but not so many that it turns into a lottery.
Fact To File: The One They Have To Beat
Fact To File arrives as the clear market leader and the most straightforward horse to make a case for.
He is the current champion, has proven Grade 1 ability, and the sense that this trip on the New Course plays right to his strengths.
There is also the psychological angle: plenty of punters saw him as a future Gold Cup horse after he won the Irish Gold Cup, so dropping into the Ryanair trip can feel like lowering the bar slightly, even if this Grade 1 is hardly a consolation.
The flipside, of course, is price; those backing Fact To File know they are paying a premium for the most solid-looking option in the race.
Jonbon’s Presence – A Late Twist
The decision to keep Jonbon in the race adds a welcome extra dimension. There had been serious talk about skipping Cheltenham altogether in favour of Aintree, where the track and timing might arguably suit him better, so his presence here is mildly surprising and tactically significant.
He brings high-class two-mile chasing form and has long hinted that a step up in trip could be within his compass.
The key question is how he will settle into this intermediate distance on the New Course. If he drops his head, travels well, and jumps with his usual fluency, he could easily trade very short turning for home.
If the early fractions are quicker than ideal, or he races a little too freely, he might be vulnerable up the hill.
For all that, punters who enjoy siding with class acts at slightly bigger prices than usual will find him hard to ignore.
Main Supporting Cast
Fact To File and Jonbon may dominate the headlines, but this Ryanair is no two-horse race.
Banbridge is an obvious player, especially back around a trip that looks tailor-made for him. A Gold Cup runner last year, he is a strong traveller who often jumps notably well at pace, and drying ground would help him more than most.
If he gets to the front late rather than early, he is exactly the type to surge up the hill.
Impaire Et Passe gives the race a touch of intrigue. Clearly talented, with high-level form over hurdles and the scope to keep improving over fences, he has the engine for this sort of assignment.
Heart Wood has been quietly progressive for trainer Henry De Bromhead, and looks like the sort that could outrun his odds if the race turns into a proper test from three out. He was second in this race last year, so knows exactly what to expect.
JPR One, Matata, Croke Park, and Master Chewy are higher in the Ryanair Chase odds, but each has the ability to shape the race from the front or latch onto a strong tempo and pick up prize money if the principals falter.
2026 Ryanair Chase Tips
Working from those trends, Fact To File ticks most boxes. He is a second-season chaser with high-class form, strong Cheltenham credentials, and a rating that puts him right at the top of the pile.
For those looking beyond the favourite, Banbridge appeals as a solid alternative. He fits the age and experience band, has strong graded form, and looks tailored to this trip on a sounder surface.
Jonbon is the more speculative selection but offers upside if he truly relishes the extra half-mile. Backers will be betting on class translating up in trip and the trainer’s decision to run being a positive signal rather than a compromise.
As for a bigger-priced one to sneak into the frame, Heart Wood makes some appeal as a tough, honest chaser who should keep grinding when others begin to feel the pinch.
Not A Year For Long Shots
The 2026 Ryanair Chase does not look like a year for wild long shots; on paper at least, the race feels set up for one of the top four in the market to assert themselves.
Fact To File is the most obvious winner, but Jonbon’s presence and the lurking threats of Banbridge and Impaire Et Passe ensure it is far from a formality.
If nothing else, we should get a proper championship test over the intermediate trip, with nine runners giving the race shape without turning it into a cavalry charge.
Whether you side with the favourite, take a chance on a class horse up in distance, or search for each-way value, the Ryanair once again looks like a race that will reward patience, discipline, and maybe just a touch of Cheltenham faith.
BETFRED
